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Why AI Lies Without Knowing It’s Lying | Victor Amit

Community description: Understanding Hallucinations, False Confidence, Statistical Prediction, and the Engineering Gap...

Dev.to | Sep 30, 2026 | Victor Amit

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Kadavath et al. (2022) found that models could, under the right prompting, estimate whether they could answer a question correctly, with reasonable calibration on the formats they tested. Turpin et al. (2023) showed models can give plausible written reasoning that omits the actual factor influencing the answer. The post‑trained model was less calibrated.

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